Palestinians say woman dies of wounds sustained in Israeli detention

LONDON: Just when Syrians thought they could finally put the horrors of the past decade behind them, the first half of 2024 witnessed a series of barbaric attacks by Islamist groups that many believed had been defeated for good.

Daesh claimed responsibility for 153 terrorist attacks in Syria and Iraq in the first six months of this year, according to US Central Command – already surpassing the 121 attacks reported in 2023.

At its peak in 2015, the terrorist group controlled an area of ​​about 110,000 square kilometers — a third of Syria and 40 percent of Iraq, including major cities such as Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq, according to the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh.

It also commanded an army of around 40,000 rebels and had under its control powerful weapons seized from local forces. However, after an international effort, Das suffered his regional defeat in March 2019 in the village of Baghouz in eastern Syria.

Five years on, and on the 10th anniversary of the group's 2014 blitzkrieg in Iraq and Syria, at a time when the world's attention is diverted from crises elsewhere, Daesh is feared to be on the verge of a comeback.

On July 22, the UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Otto Pedersen, told the Security Council that the “resurgence” of terrorist activities posed a significant threat to Syrian civilians, particularly amid a deep, country-wide humanitarian crisis.

Highlighting that Syria was “in a state of deep conflict, complexity and division”, he said the country was “distracted” by armed actors, listed terrorist groups, foreign forces and front lines.

Joshua Landis, director of the University of Oklahoma's Center for Middle East Studies and the Farzaneh Family Center for Iranian and Arabian Gulf Studies, told Arab News that the group's lack of territory meant its fighters had to be content with low-level insurgency activity.

“(Daesh) continues to be a threat in Syria and the number of people killed by ISIS and the number of attacks in 2024 has increased compared to last year,” Landis said, using another acronym for the group.

“Daesh is also trying to regroup itself, although it remains without territory and has to carry out hit-and-run attacks and assassinations,” he added.

Ian J. McCary, Deputy Special Envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh, confirmed in March that the Daesh threat lurks in Syria and Iraq.

“We're seeing a real threat in Iraq and Syria, where ISIS controls an area with about 10 million people,” he told the Washington Institute.

“We've seen the rise of ISIS affiliates – so-called ISIS Khorasan within Afghanistan, which poses a clear external threat – and in sub-Saharan Africa where many ISIS affiliates have emerged.”

Founded in early 2015 as Daesh's regional branch in South-Central Asia, Islamic State – Khorasan Province, also known by its acronym IS-K, initially focused on relocating fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Syria, according to the Warsaw-based. Center for Eastern Studies.

The group has a history of attacks that stretch far beyond Afghanistan, with at least 133 people killed and more than 100 injured after targeting Crocus City Hall in the Russian capital, Moscow, on March 22 this year.

In January, IS-K also claimed responsibility for two explosions at a memorial to slain Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in Iran, killing at least 100 people and injuring more than 284 others.

In Syria, the group has launched attacks in central and northeastern Syria, targeting both the armed forces of the Bashar Assad regime and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in the country's semi-autonomous region.

According to a 2022 report by the International Crisis Group, during 2020 and most of 2021, Daesh sleeper cells in the northeast were building intelligence networks and raising money through theft, extortion and smuggling.

However, analysts are particularly concerned about prisons and detention camps in northeastern Syria, where militants and their families have been held since their capture in 2019.

CNN reported in June that approximately 50,000 Daesh suspects and their family members are being held in 27 custody by the SDF. With increasing pressure from local forces, many prisoners have escaped or been released.

According to Landis, the SDF “amnestied many detainees and commuted many of their death sentences to 15 years in prison. This means that many prisoners are being released from prisons in northeastern Syria.

Human Rights Watch reported last year that some 42,000 foreign Daesh supporters and their family members, most of them children, from 60 countries were detained in northeastern Syria.

The New York-based monitor said children in those camps are “held in such appalling conditions that they may be tortured, and face risks of being subjected to violence or being highly susceptible to recruitment by (Daesh).”

Local officials have warned that these detention camps have become breeding grounds for radicalization, potentially contributing to a Daesh resurgence. Such a revival would be disastrous for a country already brought to the brink.

Thirteen years of civil war and sanctions, the two earthquakes of February 2023, and the escalation of the Gaza conflict have left the Syrian people traumatized and impoverished.

As of early 2024, the United Nations said some 16.7 million people in Syria – about three-quarters of the population – needed humanitarian assistance. This came at a time when the international aid budget was already stretched to its limits.

According to a July report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the humanitarian response plan for Syria is significantly underfunded, with only $871 million of its $4.07 billion budget secured as of July 25.

Ramesh Rajasingham, Director of the OCHA Coordination Division, described the situation in Syria as “the worst humanitarian crisis since the beginning of the conflict”, made worse by ongoing clashes between various armed actors in northeastern Syria.

“Another reason for (IS) growth is fighting between Arab tribes in northeast Syria and between the SDF and Kurdish militias,” Landis said.

“The chaos and internecine fighting in northeast Syria is echoed by fighting within Syrian government-controlled areas and northwest Syria, which are ruled by opposition militias under Turkish sponsorship and patronage.

“Humanitarian aid coupled with widespread poverty and continued sanctions in Syria has had a negative impact on stability.”

He added: “As long as Syria is divided and suffers from a shrinking economy, (Daesh) will find recruits in Syria. Due to lack of funds, bad government and poverty, the police in various areas have been weakened.”

According to the World Bank's Syria Economic Monitor for Spring 2024, Syria has experienced a sharp economic decline since 2022. The report forecasts a 1.5 percent contraction in real gross domestic product this year, down from 1.2 percent in 2023.

According to United Nations data, more than 90 percent of the Syrian population lives below the poverty line and more than half lack access to nutritious food, with more than 600,000 children suffering from chronic malnutrition.

Despite growing concerns about Daesh's resurgence in the region, Karam Shaar, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, does not foresee the militant group regaining control of large swaths of Syria and Iraq as it did a decade ago. .

“Because of the deterioration of living conditions and the fact that the grievances of many Sunni Muslims in the region remain unanswered, there will always be an appeal for (Daesh),” he told Arab News.

“However, I don't think they will ever be able to control large parts because of the current situation on the ground and because they are too weak to do so.”

One reason is that IS's “modus operandi has really changed,” he said. “They are now a borderline criminal group as opposed to a terrorist group. The difference is whether their activities have a political message.”

He said, “IS leaders are fully aware that if they decide to take control of large areas, there will be a severe reaction from many actors on the ground, including the US-backed Kurds, Russia and the Iranian-backed Syrian regime.”

In Iraq, the group “could be stopped even by US-backed Iraqi forces,” he added.

Both Shaar and Landis believe redeploying foreign troops to oust Daesh insurgents is unlikely. “Given the current situation, I don't see that happening,” Schar said.

Landis agreed that “more foreign troops are unlikely to be sent to Syria” to fight the uprising. “Turkey is trying to make a deal with Assad. The U.S. may prefer not to increase its military presence in Syria in the future.

And far from engaging itself in the fight against Daesh, “Israel is likely to continue, if not escalate, regular attacks on state military forces to reduce its capabilities as part of a shadow war with Iran and its proxies.