BEIRUT: A deadly rocket attack on the Israeli-held Golan Heights has fueled concerns that Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah could be surprised by a full-scale war – something they have already signaled they want to avoid but for which. They also said that they are ready.
Israel said on Sunday it would crack down on Hezbollah after it accused a group of 12 children and teenagers in a rocket attack on a soccer field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Hezbollah denied any responsibility for the attack on Majdal Shams, the deadliest since Hamas's Oct. 7 attack on Israel or Israeli-occupied territory began the war in Gaza.
Here is the background to the hostility between Israel and Hezbollah:
Why are they fighting?
Hezbollah began trading fire with Israel on October 8, a day after Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked communities in southern Israel and launched the Gaza war.
Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas, said its attacks were aimed at supporting Palestinians under Israeli bombardment in Gaza.
The Gaza war has drawn Iran-backed fighters across the region. Hezbollah is considered the most powerful member of the Iran-backed network, known as the Axis of Resistance.
Israeli army M109 155mm self-propelled howitzers are located in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights near the Syrian border on January 2, 2023. (AFP file photo)
Hezbollah has repeatedly said it will not attack Israel until a cease-fire is implemented in Gaza.
When linked to Gaza, the conflict has its own dynamics.
Israel and Hezbollah have fought many wars.
The last was in 2006.
Israel has long viewed Hezbollah as the biggest threat on its borders and is deeply concerned by its growing arsenal and the foothold it has established in Syria.
Hezbollah's ideology is defined by its conflict with Israel. It was formed in 1982 by Iran's Revolutionary Guards to fight the Israeli army that invaded Lebanon that year, and in 2000 began a years-long guerrilla war to drive Israel back from southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah considers Israel an illegitimate state established on occupied Palestinian land and wants to see it ended.
What is the impact so far?
The current conflict has affected both sides.
Tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border have been forced to leave their homes. Israeli airstrikes have hit Hezbollah-held areas in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley near the Syrian border.
Israel has occasionally carried out attacks elsewhere, most notably the Jan. 2 killing of a senior Hamas commander in Beirut.
Israeli strikes have killed about 350 Hezbollah fighters and more than 100 civilians in Lebanon, including medics, children and journalists, according to a Reuters tally of security and medical sources and death notices issued by Hezbollah.
The Israeli military said Saturday's attack brought the number of civilians killed in Hezbollah attacks since October to 23 and at least 17 soldiers dead. Hezbollah has denied responsibility for Saturday's attack.
In Israel, the displacement of many Israelis is a major political issue. Officials had hoped to be able to go home for the school year, which starts on September 1, but that looks increasingly unlikely as the standoff continues.
How bad can it be?
a lot Despite the ferocity of these hostilities, it is still seen as a relatively contained confrontation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned in December that Beirut would be turned into “Gaza” if Hezbollah launched an all-out war.
Hezbollah has already signaled that it is not seeking to widen the conflict and has said it is ready to fight any war thrown at it, warning that it has only used a small fraction of its capabilities.
Any move by Israel to escalate the conflict would be met with “destruction, destruction and displacement” in Israel, Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qasim said in an interview with Al Jazeera in June.
Past wars have caused great damage.
In 2006, Israeli strikes leveled large areas of Beirut's Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs, covered the Beirut airport, and damaged roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. Nearly one million people have fled their homes in Lebanon.
In Israel, the impact caused 300,000 people to flee their homes to escape Hezbollah rockets and nearly 2,000 homes were destroyed.
Hezbollah has a much larger arsenal than it did in 2006, including rockets that can hit all parts of Israel.
It has shown advances in its weaponry since October, shooting down Israeli drones, launching explosive drones of its own into Israel, and firing more sophisticated guided missiles.
Israeli forces have invaded Lebanon several times in the past, reaching as far as Beirut in a 1982 attack aimed at crushing Lebanon-based Palestinian guerrillas.
Is escalation inevitable?
Much will depend on what happens in Gaza, where efforts for a ceasefire and the return of Israeli hostages have failed. A cease-fire there could help quickly ease tensions in southern Lebanon.
The United States, which considers Hezbollah a terrorist group, has been the focus of diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating the conflict.
Hezbollah has signaled its openness to a deal that would benefit Lebanon, but has said no talks can take place until Israel ends its Gaza offensive.
Israel has also said it prefers a diplomatic settlement to restore security in the north, but is also prepared for military strikes to achieve the same goal.
Amos Hochstein, the US official at the center of the diplomatic liaison, brokered a possible diplomatic settlement in 2022 on the disputed maritime border between Lebanon and Israel.
Hochstein said on May 30 that he did not expect peace between Hezbollah and Israel but that a set of understandings could remove some of the impetus for conflict and establish a recognized border between Lebanon and Israel.
The French proposal, presented in Beirut in February, included negotiations aimed at a withdrawal of elite Hezbollah fighters 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the border and resolving land border disputes.
