Druze in shock as war between Israel and Hezbollah strikes home

BEIRUT/DUBAI: Israel's security cabinet has authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant to retaliate for Saturday's rocket attack on a soccer field in the Druze Arab town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 children.

According to the Israeli military, Majdal Shams was hit by an Iranian-made Falak-1 rocket carrying a 50kg warhead fired by Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah militia – a conclusion supported by the US.

Hezbollah, which has regularly fired cross-border fire into Israel since the Gaza war began on October 7, said it had “no connection” to the incident, but confirmed that one such rocket had been fired at an Israeli military target on Saturday. Golan.

In a statement, it said that “Islamic resistance has absolutely nothing to do with the incident, and we categorically reject all false allegations in this regard,” blaming the deaths instead on a failed Israeli interceptor missile.

The Majdal Shams incident followed an Israeli attack that killed four Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon, prompting the militia to launch retaliatory rocket attacks against the Golan and northern Israel.

In a thread posted on social media platform X, Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said one possible scenario is Hezbollah or its allies such as the al-Fajr Force and the al-Qassam Brigades. A rocket was fired by mistake.

In any case, “in all cases, the massacre provided (an excuse) for the Netanyahu government to use force,” he said.

Netanyahu, who returned early from his US trip, immediately attended a security cabinet meeting, telling local media that “Hezbollah will have to pay a heavy price” for the attack, “a price it has not paid before.”

After the meeting, his office said: “Cabinet members authorized the Prime Minister and the Defense Minister to determine the manner and timing of the response against the Hezbollah terrorist organization.”

On Sunday, during a visit to Majdal Shams, Gallant vowed to “hit the enemy hard”, fueling fears that war could spill over into Gaza. Meanwhile Iran warned Israel that any new military “venture” in Lebanon could lead to “unforeseen consequences”.

Israel's military called it the “deadliest attack on Israeli civilians” since the shelling on the Lebanese border began in October. The attack has fueled fears that the hostilities, which have so far been relatively contained, could spiral into all-out war.

In fact, regional observers fear that any major retaliation for an attack by Israel could bring Hezbollah's Iranian backers into the fray as well.

“A strong Israeli response against Hezbollah could lead to another direct retaliation from Iran,” Iranian-born Israeli Middle East commentator and academic Mir Javadnafar said after the rocket attack.

As with previous escalations between Israel and its Iran-backed adversaries since the Gaza war began, the reprisals have been relatively minor and have been carefully managed to maintain their deterrent effect without a major confrontation.

However, Firas Maqsad, a senior fellow at the Washington DC-based Middle East Institute, is under no illusions about the gravity of the situation. “The risk of further miscalculation has never been greater,” he said.

“A full-scale Israel-Lebanon war is long overdue. A 'positive' scenario would see the next offensive contained in the now heavily populated areas of both countries.

Although the rocket attacks and subsequent Israeli retaliation could create the conditions for a rapid escalation, Hege Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center believes Hezbollah is still eager to avoid an all-out war.

“It remains that Hezbollah wants to avoid war and will show restraint after the Israeli response,” he said. “Even if Hezbollah crosses the red line, Hezbollah will likely opt for a symbolic 'tick the box' response.”

However, “the Majdal Shams attack highlights the challenge of sustaining a geographically restricted conflict for several months. Mistakes or miscalculations are bound to happen and can escalate into conflict given the desire of various parties to avoid conflict.”

Israel made good on its threat of retaliation by attacking the southern Lebanese cities of Abbasiya and Burj al-Shamali on Sunday morning. Both cities adjacent to the city of Tire suffered heavy physical damage. Further attacks took place in Tire Harfa and Khiyam.

Taraya in the central Bekaa was also struck, with two missiles destroying a residential building. No casualties were reported.

“Nobody wants a big war,” Beirut-based Lebanese journalist Kim Ghatas, who writes for the Atlantic, posted on X.

“Israel will seek to hit key or high-visibility targets either in one heavy night of strikes, or in a week of ops. The key is to avoid population centers/civilian casualties and not trigger a massive Hezbollah response and full-scale war.

“It's very difficult to calibrate. The stakes are high for Lebanon, the region and the Biden administration. So far, Israel has not called for the evacuation of more settlements in northern Israel, they believe Hezbollah's response will be measured.

“All of this requires open channels of comms to ensure that no one mis-reads the other side's moves. It's like a choreography of death, with all-too-real consequences for citizens everywhere.

As tensions rose over the weekend, several Western nations issued statements urging their citizens to avoid all unnecessary travel to Lebanon and Israel. Meanwhile, several airlines have suspended flights to and from Beirut.

After the attack, diplomatic activities are underway for Israel to retaliate.

The Lebanese government has condemned all violence and attacks on civilians. “Targeting civilians is a clear violation of international law and contradicts the principles of humanity,” it said in a statement, calling for an “immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts”.

Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said in an interview late Sunday with local broadcaster Al-Jadid that the US, France and others were trying to contain the rising tensions.

“Hezbollah has been targeting military sites since the beginning of the war, not civilian sites,” he said, adding, “It does not believe it carried out this attack in Majdal Shams.”

“It could have been done by other organizations, it could have been an Israeli mistake, or even Hezbollah's mistake. I don't know. We need an international investigation to find out the truth about this matter.”

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati also said that “negotiations continue with international, European and Arab parties to protect Lebanon and avoid threats”.

US National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said Washington was in “continuous discussions” with Israel and Lebanon after the attack.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the rocket attack and called on all parties to “exercise maximum restraint”.

In a joint statement, the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Janine Hennis-Plaschart, and Major General Aroldo Lazaro, head of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, stressed that “civilians must always be protected.”

They “urged the parties to exercise maximum restraint and end the intense and sustained exchange of fire that could lead to a wider conflict that could plunge the entire region into an unimaginable disaster.”

Hennis-Plaschart said she was in contact with the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, Nabih Berri, who is considered an important channel of communication with Hezbollah.

In his statement, Berry said, “Lebanon and its resistance (Hezbollah) are committed to Resolution 1701 and the rules of engagement not to target civilians,” stressing that “the resistance's denial of what happened in Majdal Shams clearly confirms this commitment and Lebanon's responsibility for what happened to it.” No responsibility.”

Walid Jumblatt, an influential former leader of the Druze-based Progressive Socialist Party, said he received a phone call Saturday night from US President Joe Biden's special envoy Amos Hochstein to discuss the incident.

Jumblatt called on both sides to exercise restraint and remain calm, reiterating the need to avoid civilian casualties. “Wherever this happens, targeting civilians, whether in occupied Palestine, the occupied Golan or southern Lebanon, is unacceptable,” he said in a statement.

The fact that those killed in the Majdal Shams attack were not Israelis but members of the Druze community is a complicating factor for Hezbollah, which has sought to mend relations with the religious sect.

Many residents of Majdal Shams have not accepted Israeli citizenship since Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967.

After conquering nearly two-thirds of the Golan Heights during the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, Israel annexed the area in 1981, except for the US since 2019, in a move not recognized by the international community.

The Golan Druze are recognized as Syrians when they have resident status in Israel instead of citizenship. Members of the Druze community in Syria have resisted the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad, supported by Hezbollah.

“The 'case belly' of war is particularly important to Hezbollah,” said Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical analyst and analyst team leader at Le Beck International.

“They will have to justify their actions to the Lebanese (who will suffer great destruction by Israel) if a war breaks out as a result of the attack on Majdal Shams, and it will be especially uncomfortable for them.

“Hezbollah wants to be seen as the defender of Lebanon. If an attack starts a war that kills city residents (who) don't even identify as Israelis, it will be especially bad for the group.

“This explains Hezbollah's denial on top of sectarian dynamics. The narrative of how the war begins is critical to the group.”