If not Kamala Harris, who else could be the Democratic nominee for the November election?
New York City / Chicago: President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign and drop out of the US presidential race has given Vice President Kamala Harris enough momentum to become the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, according to three billion US analysts.
Biden, who endorsed Harris in his withdrawal announcement on Sunday, has been trailing former President Donald Trump in opinion polls amid the growing Arab American #AbandonBiden movement, and widespread calls to drop out of the 2024 race after his disastrous June 27 debate performance in Atlanta. .
What would have been the coronation of the 81-year-old Biden at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Aug. 19 has now turned into an open contest in which some 4,700 party delegates will vote by state for their preferred candidate to challenge Trump. , the Republican Party candidate.
Rana Abtar, a talk show host for Asharq News in Washington, D.C., expects Harris to be the Democratic nominee, though several other candidates could be considered. However, she believes Democrats must “show unity” if they are to win the November election.
“What we're seeing today is that Democrats are starting to support Harris one by one,” she told Arab News. “There were some delegates in two states who voted to support Kamala Harris. This means that their vote will be reflected at the Democratic National Convention.
“Remaining Democrats who have not endorsed Harris are expected to fall in line soon. At some point we will see all Democrats, or even a majority of Democrats, lining up behind Harris. It is very important for Democrats to present a show of unity after the dilemma facing their party after President Biden announced that he would not seek a second term.” is.”
Biden's withdrawal from the race frees his convention delegates from the nation's 50 states and provinces to endorse any candidate during the convention. Several alternative names are being floated, including centrist Sen. Joe Manchin, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, former first lady Michelle Obama, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Noting that Harris is popular among African-American voters, a traditional pillar of support for the Democratic Party, Abter said many see him as part of the Biden administration's policies that fueled the #AbandonBiden movement, with Arabs and Muslims voting in key swings. State primaries for “unrestricted” or “no vote” options instead of president.
“Harris is not that popular in the polls,” Abter said. “Many Democrats are worried that his chances against Trump are similar to those of President Biden against Trump. Of course, in the coming days we will see Harris getting out there, talking to voters, because in the past, in his role as vice president, he has not spoken directly to the American people on many occasions.
“Biden gave him the immigration case, which in itself puts him in a very awkward position, especially since the main attack by Republicans against Democrats concerns immigration and border security.
“But I believe the most important element here is not Harris. Who he will choose as his running mate is because voters need excitement. Democratic voters need excitement to get out and vote.”
Abtar said third-party candidates, such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein is often seen as an “election spoiler” — people who could sway votes from Harris or even Trump.
“Kennedy's numbers are considered too high for an independent candidate and his voters … could make a difference in the election season by taking away votes from Trump or Harris … if he gets the official nomination,” Abtar said.
Any of the people suggested as Biden's replacements could run for vice president, including Pritzker, a billionaire with his own presidential ambitions.
Amal Mudallali, a former ambassador to the United Nations and CEO of Bridge International Group, thinks Harris has a “perception problem.”
“There is a perception that she was not a strong vice president, that she will not be a strong candidate and that she will not be able to beat Trump,” she told Arab News.
Although Democrats appear to be moving quickly to rally behind Harris, including Monday's endorsement of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Mudallali remains cautious.
“It's all up in the air because there are still very powerful Democrats who are calling for an open convention and an open field for everyone to throw their hat in the ring, and see if they can get the strongest candidate for the Democratic Party that will be able to beat Trump,” she said.
The influence of independent candidates in the election cannot be overstated, she added.
“In a very close election, independent candidates can do a lot of damage. Because this election is a very close race — you're talking thousands, or thousands, of votes — that can make or break a campaign,” Mudallali said.
“Let's say if Kennedy was able to get more votes from the Democrats, that would hurt the Democrats even more and it would be a big problem for them.
“But we still don't know who will be the candidate of the Democratic Party. If the person is a very strong candidate, the party may be able to rally anti-Trump constituencies, which will overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic candidate. In that case, independents don't matter. “
Firas Maqsad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes that Harris is “all but certain” to replace Biden as the nominee, and suggested that Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer could be her running mate on the first “all-female ticket.”
He told Arab News: “The stakes are very high on who will be his running mate in the vice-presidential race, possibly with an all-female ticket if he chooses Whitmer. This is unprecedented and carries risks. But Whitmer could help deliver the key swing state of Michigan, and An all-female team could re-energize a currently largely disillusioned Democratic base.
He added: “Harris's approval ratings with the American public have never been higher. But at this point, the Democratic Party and President Biden's decision to put her name forward is largely based on funding and finances. She's the only one who will be able to qualify for all the money, hundreds million dollars, which has been raised so far. So, his choice for running mate will also be important to that Democratic base and the general interest of that Democratic ticket.
Maqsad believes Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race, and speculation about Whitmer's addition to the ticket, could influence the strong Arab and Muslim vote in Michigan, many of whom voted against the Biden-Harris team in the February 27 Democratic Party primary contest. .
“Arab Americans are not monolithic,” he said. “They are a diverse group with different priorities spread across four battleground states. Michigan gets a lot of attention, but so do Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania.
“In Michigan, where there are 100,000 of them, they have strong feelings about the war in Gaza and about President Biden not doing enough to stop the war. By ousting Biden, the Democratic Party opens up the possibility of a re-entry among Arab Americans in Michigan. And should the vice president (elect) actually be the governor of Michigan, That will give Democrats more opportunities to step in and win back Michigan as a key battleground state.”
