London: More than two years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the prospect of Donald Trump's next presidency has opened a window for Russian President Vladimir Putin to offer a deal with Kiev.
Ukraine's official position, along with that of Western European countries and the United States, is that Russian return from occupied Ukrainian territories can be the only basis for any agreement.

Ukrainian soldiers prepare to travel to the frontline in the Donetsk region. (AFP)
Putin's talk of talks comes amid growing doubts about the sustainability of Western support for Ukraine in a war many believe has reached an “impasse”. The Russian leader felt a weakness in Washington's earlier firm stance.
A source in Ukraine, speaking anonymously to Arab News, disputed the idea of a “stalemate”, attributing the lack of progress to Ukrainian forces being inadequately equipped by their Western allies.
“Stalemate is what the rules of the game of chess dictate, but we don't have that here,” the source said. “We have a coalition giving Ukraine the pieces to fight this war, and if we are given the pieces we need, there will be no stalemate. The problem is that the coalition is not supporting us with the objective of winning, but rather with the objective of survival.”

While President Joe Biden has been generous with his support, Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, have cast doubt on that credibility. (AFP)
Despite this perspective, military strategists argue that without Western support, Ukraine would likely have been forced to surrender to Russia months or years ago. Instead, Ukraine has blocked Russian advances and gained battlefield advantages.
However, the steady flow of Western – especially American – aid may soon diminish. While President Joe Biden has been generous with his support, Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, have cast doubt on that credibility.
Trump called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “the greatest salesman of all time” at a campaign rally in Detroit in June.

Families walk to catch a train at Kramatorsk Central Station as they flee the eastern city of Kramatorsk in the Donbas region. (AFP)
“He just took $60 billion four days ago, and he gets home, and he announces that he needs another $60 billion,” Trump said. “This will never end. I will fix this before the president is elected to the White House.
Putin seems to have taken note, with US intelligence officials anonymously suggesting that Russia supports Trump as a candidate in the upcoming election.
“We haven't seen a change in Russia's preference for the presidential race since past elections, given the role the US is playing in relation to Ukraine and its broader policy toward Russia,” a US intelligence official said.
In line with Trump's penchant for making deals, Putin has recently signaled his willingness to negotiate, offering to cede Ukraine's eastern regions of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhia to Russia.
Although Russia only partially controls these areas, the delay in US funding has given Russia a 3:1 advantage in equipment. This advantage led to “strategically significant advances” by Russian forces, particularly in Kharkiv, which challenged Zelensky's firm stance against losing any territory to the deal.
INnumbers
• $211 billion+ cost of Russian military campaign in Ukraine.
• 4.6M+ Ukrainians in need of humanitarian assistance.
• 60,000+ combined death toll.
• 3.7 M+ Ukrainians internally displaced by war.
Sources: Pentagon, IRC
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, writes in X that she sees no near-term path to victory for Ukraine, whatever the outcome of the US election.
“It seems unlikely that the West will support Ukraine to an extent that could force Russia to back down. From Moscow's perspective, there are no actions that could decisively change the situation in Ukraine's favor,” Stanovaya said.

Firefighters work on a multi-storey residential building destroyed by a missile attack in central Kiev. (AFP)
Given the war zone situation and the possibility of Trump returning to the White House, Zelensky has indicated a willingness to negotiate. In late July, he invited Russian negotiators to a planned peace summit in November, a move former US ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst described as a nod to Trump's willingness to negotiate.
“It must be a fair peace, one that does not allow the Russian occupiers to continue to torture, oppress and kill the people of Ukraine,” Herbst told CNN.
Amid renewed global efforts to find a negotiated solution to the conflict, reports on Sunday said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may visit Ukraine on August 24, coinciding with Ukraine's national day. aspects.

Ukrainian army medics evacuate a wounded soldier on a road not far from Soledar, Donetsk region. (AFP)
Last week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Guangzhou, the first visit by Ukraine's most senior diplomat to the country since the February 2022 invasion by Russia.
China has maintained close relations with Russia and has insisted on ending the war by taking into account the interests of both sides.
China did not attend a peace conference in Switzerland last month that did not include Russia. It is not believed to have sold weapons directly to Russia, but several reports have said that so-called dual-use goods – which can have military or civilian uses – have ended up in Russian weapons from China and other countries.
Kuleba's visit to China drew a public rebuke in June from Zelensky, who accused Russia of helping prevent countries from attending the Swiss peace conference.
Some suggest that Zelensky's negotiations are simply politicized with the aim of aligning himself with a potential US president. Others argue that it does not reflect the stance of Ukraine's new military commander-in-chief.
Colonel General Oleksandr Sirsky admitted to Britain's Guardian newspaper that recent Russian acquisitions had put his army in a “very difficult” position. However, he emphasized that these “strategic” victories were not the operational successes necessary to justify Russia's significant losses.
Obai Shahbandar, a former Pentagon Middle East defense adviser, described the loss of daily life experienced by Russians as “unprecedented.” However, he noted that Ukraine is still struggling to replenish its manpower after nearly 30 months of fighting, with calls for half a million more troops and a ban on men aged 18 to 60 from leaving the country sparking a public backlash.
“By all definitions, the conflict is a stalemate, but Moscow is hoping that by using sheer mass it can overwhelm and tire the Ukrainians,” Shahbandar told Arab News.

Putin may regret the harshness with which he fought this war. (AFP)
He expressed doubts about the talks taking place before next year, citing the need for US participation, which is unlikely during Biden's “lame duck” tenure.
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Moreover, he said that Moscow “does not have any real incentives or pressure to negotiate a deal that would be a real opportunity, and Kiev also needs an incentive to agree to a deal.”
Contrary to some analysts, Shahbandar does not see a possible Trump victory as a victory for Russia. Rather, he sees it as a potential catalyst for both sides to negotiate a realistic conclusion to the war.
“The prevailing analysis among many think tanks and mainstream media outlets is assuming that Trump's election victory is good news for Russia and bad news for Ukraine,” he said. “But the reality of Trump's presidential policies will be far more nuanced than he's been given credit for.”
This has led others to interpret Putin's call for talks as an attempt to take advantage of uncertainty and strike a deal now, rather than a sign of confidence in Trump's victory.

Biden has been generous in his support of Ukraine against Russia's actions in the country. (AFP)
Sources with ties to Russia told Arab News that while they did not see Putin acting with increased flexibility, they agreed that he would try to benefit Trump's election run. If that strategy fails, Putin may regret the harshness with which he fought this war.
In the middle of their third year, Ukrainians remain steadfast in their desire to expel Russian troops, amid growing anger over the government's efforts to increase troop numbers. A recent poll indicated that only 32 percent of Ukrainians would accept a ceding zone to end the conflict.