Athens/Qamishli, Syria: Since 2022, senior Syrian and Turkish officials have met periodically in Moscow for talks mediated by Russia. But those encounters have failed to thaw their cold relationship.
But it is a different story now that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced his desire to restore formal relations with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad.
He said earlier this month that he could invite Assad to Turkey “at any moment”, to which the Syrian leader responded that any meeting would depend on “content”.
Ankara and Damascus cut diplomatic ties in 2011 after the Syrian civil war broke out. Relations have remained hostile ever since, particularly as Turkey continues to support armed groups opposed to the Assad regime.
Since the start of the civil war in 2011, Turkey has supported armed Syrian factions in the war against the regime of President Bashar Assad, the leftist. AFP
So, what is the motivation to change course now? And what are the possible consequences of the normalization of Turkish-Syrian relations?
Syrian writer and political researcher Shoresh Darwish believes President Erdogan is seeking normalization for two reasons. “The first is preparation for the possibility of the arrival of a new US administration led by Donald Trump, which means a possible return to the policy of (US) withdrawal from Syria,” he told Arab News.
“So Erdogan should cooperate with Assad and Russia.”
Dervish says Erdogan wants to be closer to Russia, an ally of the Syrian regime, after a shift towards the US that has soured since the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Indeed, as a NATO member state, the conflict has complicated Turkey's normally balanced approach to relations with Washington and Moscow.
“Ankara's cooperation with Moscow regarding the Ukrainian issue is difficult,” Darwish said. “As a result of significant Western intervention on this issue, their cooperation in Syria represents a meeting point through which Erdogan wants to highlight his friendship with Putin and Moscow's interest in the Middle East.”
In Syria's opposition-held northwest, which is backed by Turkey, the Ankara-Damascus relationship is seen as a betrayal.
During one of the many demonstrations in Idlib since early July, protesters held up signs in Arabic that read: “If you want to get close to Assad, congratulations, the curse of history is upon you.”
Abdulkarim Omar, a political activist in Idlib, told Arab News: “Western Syria, Idlib, Aleppo countryside and all areas belonging to the opposition completely reject this behavior because it is in the interest of the Syrian regime.
“The Syrian people came out 13 years ago and rose up in revolution demanding freedom, dignity and the creation of a civil, democratic state for all Syrians. This can only be achieved by defeating the dictatorial Syrian regime represented by Bashar Assad. They still stick to this principle and these slogans and cannot give them up. “
Residents of areas controlled by the Kurdish-led and US-backed Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, or AANES, which covers much of Syria east of the Euphrates River, are also wary of the consequences of normalization.
“People fear that this could be a prelude to reconciliation to punish the Syrian Kurds for their political choices,” Omar said.
The incursion into Syria from 2016 to 2019 saw Turkey take control of several cities, many of which were previously under the control of AANES.
Turkey's justification for its 2018 and 2019 offensive and continued presence on Syrian territory was the aim of establishing a “safe zone” between itself and the armed forces of AANES – the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Turkey views the SDF as the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, a group that has been in conflict with the Turkish state since the 1980s.
“Naturally, the Syrian Kurds know that they will be part of any deal that Erdogan wants to make with Assad,” Darwish said. “This issue disheartens the Syrian Kurds, who see the Turks as ready to do anything to harm them and have experience in self-governance.”
Darwish said the Syrian Kurds would accept reconciliation on three conditions. First they want Turkey to withdraw its forces from Afrin and Ras al-Ain. Second, an end to Turkish strikes against AANES territories. And third, the Assad regime's guarantee that “Syrian Kurds will enjoy their national, cultural and administrative rights.”
But how possible is the relationship between Ankara and Damascus? Not much, according to conflict analyst and UNHRC representative Thoreau Redcrow. “I find the possibility of Erdogan and Assad's detention very unlikely,” he told Arab News.
“Historically, the Turkish idea of 'normalization' with Syria is a policy of unilateral influence for the benefit of Ankara. In this arrangement, Turkey continues to occupy Hatay (Liwa Iskenderun) which it captured from Syria in 1938, and demands military incursions into their sovereignty as in the Adana Agreement in 1998. It does, but gives nothing in return.
Assad made it clear in a public statement that the meeting between him and Erdogan will only take place on the condition that Turkey withdraws from Syrian territory. Redcrow believes that Turkey has no intention of leaving.
“I can't see Damascus being willing to be manipulated for a photo-op,” he said. “The Syrian government is more arrogant than other regional actors who are happy to be one of the Turkish 'neo-Ottoman provinces'.”
Erdogan may be trying to capitalize on the trend toward normalization among Arab countries, which began last year with Syria's reinstatement to the Arab League. However, European states and America are divided.
“Whereas Germany, France, Italy, and especially Britain have focused more on how Turkey can control the gateway to Europe and act as a 'continental bouncer' for refugees from the Middle East and Western Asia, the US is more focused on denying “Russia and Iran have regained full access to Syria for strategic reasons, such as access to the Mediterranean Sea and the 'Sia land bridge' from Tehran to Beirut,” Redcrow said.
“The current status quo is more beneficial to Washington than any reconciliation, as it could also threaten the northeastern parts of Syria, where US forces are joined by their most reliable military partners against Daesh in the SDF. Therefore, any green light given to Turkey to jeopardize US interests no
The US House of Representatives passed the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act of 2023 in February, which prohibits any normalization with Assad. In a post on social media platform X on July 12, the bill's author, Rep. Joe Wilson expressed his dismay at Erdogan's call for normalization, likening it to “normalization itself with death”.
Although reconciliation may be unlikely to succeed at this point, the roughly 3.18 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey view even rumors of normalization with fear and dread.
“People are very scared,” Amal Hayat, a mother of five in southeastern Turkey, told Arab News. “Since the (reconciliation) rumors started, many people do not leave their homes. Even if the bosses beat them at work, they are afraid to say anything for fear of being deported.”
Turkish authorities deported more than 57,000 Syrians in 2023, according to Human Rights Watch.
“The forced withdrawal affects us a lot,” Hyatt said. “For example, if a woman returns to Syria with her family, her husband can be arrested by the regime. Or if a man is returned to Syria and his wife and children live in Turkey, how will they manage? Garo. Our children can study here. They have stability. And there's security.”
Waves of violence against Syrian refugees have fueled fears of deportation in southern Turkey in recent weeks. On June 30, residents of the central Turkish province of Kayseri attacked Syrians and their property.
Anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkey is partly due to economic issues, where Turks see underpaid or unpaid Syrians as a threat to their employment prospects.
Hayat said, “The Turks are very happy for us to return home. “For them, it is not soon enough. We are all living at a high level of tension. We are praying that (Assad and Erdogan) do not reconcile.
